Economic Calendar

Macro releases move expectations and liquidity. Your plan must adapt risk, timing and strategy.

Event tiers

• High: central banks, CPI/PPI, NFP, GDP, PMIs.
• Medium: inventories, housing, confidence.
• Low: speeches/minor reports.

Checklist

• Know exact times and forecasts; avoid opening positions minutes before high‑impact events unless that is your specific edge.
• After release: wait for spreads to normalize; trade only clear structure breaks.

Case Study: Trading Around NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)

Context: USD/JPY long position, entry 150.50, stop 150.00. NFP releases at 8:30 AM ET.

Pre-Release Action Plan

• 30 minutes before: Close 50% of position to reduce risk to 0.5R
• Reason: NFP can cause 80–150 pip moves in seconds
• Forecast: +180k jobs (previous +250k)
• Market expectation: Slightly bearish USD if miss

Post-Release Scenario A: Beat (+250k actual)

• USD/JPY spikes to 151.20 within 2 minutes
• Spread widens to 8 pips (normal 2 pips)
• Action: Wait 10 minutes for spread normalization
• Price consolidates at 151.00; close remaining 50% at +50 pips = +1R
• Total result: +0.5R (first half) + 1R (second half) = +1.5R instead of potential −1R if stopped

Post-Release Scenario B: Miss (+120k actual)

• USD/JPY drops to 149.80 within 1 minute
• Stop triggered at 150.00: loss 0.5R (only on 50% remaining)
• Total result: +0.5R (first half closed pre‑news) − 0.5R (stop) = Break‑even
• Without pre‑close: Would have lost full 1R

ECB Rate Decision Example

Setup: EUR/USD short at 1.0950, stop 1.1000. ECB announcement 8:45 AM CET.

• Pre‑announcement: Close 70% of position
• After announcement: ECB hikes 0.25%, EUR spikes to 1.0980
• Action: Wait 15 minutes; price reverses to 1.0930 on profit‑taking
• Close remainder: +20 pips = +0.4R on 30% position
• Total: Locked +0.7R before volatility, captured +0.12R after = +0.82R total